Jim Sterne on: Web analytics, Easy or Hard

Any day when you can join Jim Sterne on a webcast is a good day. And today was such a day for me. Jim was the featured speaker in today’s webcast: Web analytics, Easy or Hard. The webcast, sponsored by Unica, is a follow-on to his recent Mediapost article on the same subject. You can access the recording here.

Is it the tool or the analyst or both?

Meanwhile, I am counting the days until the upcoming eMetrics Marketing Optimization summit in Washington D.C. on Oct 19.

Follow-up to: Is Amazon really that cool?

In a recent post readers and I mulled over the fact whether Amazon really is that cool with their customer analytics and interactive marketing as we keep saying in our industry. Or whether their real secret to success is that they simply offer the cheapest price.

To that effect, Jared Waxman was kind enough to leave another thorough comment as an ex-Amazon’ian. (or do they call themselves Amazones?) Thought, I’d point you to it so it doesn’t go under in its location within a past post.

Thanks much to Jared and Ned and others who commented.

Follow up on Expert / Decision Support Systems for Web Analysts

A lively discussion came about after the recent post on the lack of expert systems to aid web analysts in their work with web analytics solutions.

In that post I referred to medical expert systems as an analogy to convey that this is a realistic idea even if it may seem at first that the web is too complicated. But I was struggling to find a good link to such medical expert systems even after torturing my favored search engine.

Well, turns out this was because they aren’t called expert systems anymore, but Clinical Decision Support Systems.

Below is a relevant exert from the related Wikipedia article.

—————–

Purpose/Goal

The main purpose of modern CDSS [clinical decision support system] is to assist clinicians at the point of care. This means that a clinician would interact with a CDSS to help determine diagnosis, analysis, etc. of patient data.

Previous theories of CDSS were to use the CDSS to literally make decisions for the clinician. The clinician would input the information and wait for the CDSS to output the “right” choice and the clinician would simply act on that output. The new methodology of using CDSS to assist forces the clinician to interact with the CDSS utilizing both the clinician’s knowledge and the CDSS to make a better analysis of the patients data than either human or CDSS could make on their own.

—————–

In the case of our analytics world, it wouldn’t just be analyst vs. this “WDSS” (web analytics DSS) but it would be a matter of combining:

  • analyst
  • WDSS
  • Web analytics solution to supply information on “the patient”, a.k.a “the web site”
  • CompIntel benchmarking / audience mesaurement
  • VOC
  • Customer experience mgmt.
  • etc.

But I think the WDSS will be a great addition to help the analyst work with these other “talkative” but very deep systems.

Can’t wait to provide some examples.

Congrats to the Omniture folks! A Q&A with myself

Q: Hey Akin, what do you think?

A: Very exciting news for all of us. This proves that web analytics are worth billions of dollars. Everyone that knows something about analytics should get a big raise this week.

Q: My wife says reading about web analytics topics can cure insomnia. Why is such a geeky, nerdy number juggling sport worth billions?

A: Because the WWW is becoming the most central channel not just for advertising (as seems to be Adobe’s focus) but for interactions and transactions. Without web analytics at the heart, it would be like flying a Boeing 777 without instruments and only a kite string for control.

Q: So, are you jealous?

A: What me? Jealous of 30 somethings selling their company for billions of dollars? … On top of that, Josh James also has more hair than I do! That is just not fair.

Q: And how does this make sense for Adobe?

A: The funniest quote that was sent around on that is this one: “hey, why didn’t they buy Wendy’s” . Joking aside, there are a lot of puzzling questions open and still to be determined.

Q: And how about Omniture customers?

A: Phil Kemelor’s post today is worth a read on that one, especially when it comes to Genesis.

Q: How about other web analytics competitors of Unica’s?

A: Well, this big “For Sale” sign at Webtrends reminds me of a time when Visual Sciences’s new/old CEO had made a similar unmistakable public statement that the combined VS/WSSI were for sale. It didn’t take long from there until Omniture had announced its acquisition of the combo. So … shall we conclude and bet that Webtrends may change owners before Dec. 31st?

Q: Last words?

A: Personally, I look forward to competing with Adobe. But I will miss using PDF and Flash now that I have to uninstall those from my computer.

Why is there still no Expert System for Web Analytics?

Isn’t it silly? Web analytics has been around for almost 15 years now. There are many books, many best practices, many consultancies, and many gurus.

But the common man’s approach to doing web analysis still seems a bit more like a teenager dabbling around in the dark vs. an engineer that systematically constructs or troubleshoots an issue. That is to say web analysis still seems very ad-hoc instead of being methodical.

No, the best practice of “set KPIs and implement a continuous cycle of improvement” is NOT enough.

Everyone who is in the space has heard of the best practice. It is a well taken recommendation. But it is only the beginning of a methodical approach.

As soon as one of your KPIs is down the “methodical” part ends and instead you are advised to check your funnels and your paths and segment and drill and compare and trend and experiment and yada, yada.

Where is the methodical best practice for that part, heh?

Car mechanics receive more complete training than web analysts

Imagine you towed your kaput car to the mechanic. The KPI of “starter” is clearly down, i.e. the car doesn’t start. But now the mechanic takes a screwdriver and randomly checks each of the gazillion screws on your car.

That would be ridiculous!

Clearly, the mechanic will be trained to apply their knowledge of what should be happening vs. where in the process the breakdown is occurring to narrow down the cause of the issue.

You might say that is exactly what we would do with funnel reporting in analytics. But not so fast!

Take an example.

Say, we are an eCommerce website and our KPI “revenue” is down this week

There ought to be an expert system that advises the web analyst in which order to investigate following interrelated questions:

  • Are conversion rates down?
  • Are average order values down?
  • Is traffic down?
  • Are new or repeat visitors down?
  • Are direct or campaign traffic sources down?
  • Which campaign channels are down?
  • Are click throughs on your search ads down?
  • Is search inventory down?
  • Is your paid search ad rank lower?
  • Are you running out of paid search budget during the day?
  • Are the direct competitor’s traffic and/or conversions up?
  • Are site errors up?

See what I mean?

There are too many questions for you to always have to derive from scratch in which order you should ask them.

Why should we need to reinvent the wheel every time instead of having an expert system walking the analyst through?

Similar to the car mechanic’s job, there is a logical order in which to investigate web site issues

For example:

Is Traffic down?

  • If Yes, then go on to troubleshoot traffic sources
  • If No, then go on to troubleshoot conversion rates

But this is not as simple as a “decision tree”. It will be more like a network of questions.

For example:

  • Traffic could be down because people may have shifted to clicking more on competitors’ search listings.
  • Conversion rate could be down because visitors may have shifted to dropping off and buying more from competitors

So, in both the Yes and No branches of the above question/answer case the logical path can reach a point where you ought to switch from your web analytics tool to your compIntel tool to answer the next logical question.

My point is though — did I miss something or

  • Where is there a white paper by our consulting gurus that has troubleshooting flow charts for each of the 5 site types and the most common 3 KPIs for each site type?
  • I haven’t gone through the UBC/WAA course ware so if it is in there, someone let me know please.
  • I have read most but not all web analytics books, so educate me if one of these has flow charts of questions in it?

Am I on crack?

I am sure you are yelling out loud by now: “Darn it, analytics are too complicated to turn into a static network of questions and web businesses are too different from each other even if they fall into just 5 common site types. “

  • eCommerce
  • lead gen
  • content / publishing
  • customer service
  • brand marketing / educational

But dude, medical Expert Systems could not eliminate medical doctors either — They assist doctors in doing their work more efficiently and more reliably!

And if the expert system runs out of ideas and can’t find the issue … you can always go back to applying your own brain.

That is all I am saying.

The expert system could never eliminate the need for having educated web analysts and consultancies. But it would make everyone more efficient and effective.

Road map

  • Phase 1: write down the trouble shooting algorithms on paper and try them out until they are ripened
  • Phase 2: turn them into an expert system for easier use
  • Phase 3: automate the connection to web analytics tools so that the expert system can check some of the answers itself and spit out a check list

An opportunity for the WAA, maybe?

Couldn’t this be a cool new online business for the Web Analytics Association?

  • The system would be open for members to upload their own expert rules
  • Members could select “trouble shooters” by site type and KPI
  • Members could rate other people’s trouble shooters so that the best ones will bubble to the top
  • An API would allow hooking up with the coolest web analytics tools, say Unica’s.

I suspect it would take too much work for volunteers though who may not have a real incentive for bottling up their expertise. So, I will be sure to talk to my colleagues at Unica and our consulting partners about this one.